Inflation
Charmin Toilet Paper: A case study
Charmin 30 Mega = 120 regular variety
About two weeks ago, I started to see Charmin Ultra Soft toilet paper in the 30 Mega = 120 Regular variety in my local Target stores, again. I was bewildered, flabbergasted, and shocked, prompting me to draft this article.
This current version has 729 square feet
My fascination with toilet paper started in 1988 when I arrived at a refugee camp in Palawan, Philippines. There, my mother, brother, and I received a monthly allowance of toilet paper, probably courtesy of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Or, perhaps, my late father sent it to us from the United States. I wasn’t sure. But that’s a moot point. The key thing is that I limited myself to four sheets per visit to the washroom.
This infatuation was further cemented during the recent COVID pandemic, in which I read stories about people running out of toilet paper and ending up in interesting situations. My family wasn’t affected by this pandemic shortage, due to my tendency to hoard - as alleged by my daughters and wife.
However, I started keeping tab of toilet paper prices at my local Target and Walmart stores around this time to keep track of inflation in my little world. I didn’t document and record any of those data. I just tried to memorize and process them in my mind.
The variety of interest used to cost $32.99 at Target stores in the past couple of years. Earlier this year, there was a clearance sale - around fifty percent off - on this variety. I bought all of it from the local Target stores. I actually visited five Target stores for that special event. The Mega variety had been replaced by the Mega XL and Mega XXL in Target. I calculated and compared the cost per roll of the previous version with the Mega XL. The cost per role was the same. After a few hours of theoretical debate with myself, I stopped delving into the subject.
The recent re-appearance of this variety prompted me to re-investigate this urgent and timely topic, especially given the recent cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. So, I took a closer look by examining my stockpile.
This version has 795 square feet
This version has 861 square feet
Change in price in terms of square footage
(861 - 729) / 861 = 15.3%.
So, there is a greater than 15 percent reduction in toilet paper from the oldest version, that I have, to the current one.
I suspect there has been a degradation in terms of quality too, as indicated by numerous online comments. But I won’t discuss it.
Ramification of Recent Changes in Toilet Paper
Institutional Knowledge
Target stores took time to re-introduce this variety, approximately after a twelve-month absence, based on my memory. Perhaps, it worked in conjunction with Procter & Gamble, the producer of Charmin, to tailor this re-introduction. Twelve months might be the amount of time for most of the old variety to be consumed. This fact is important since it would be difficult for consumers to have a basis for comparison at the time of its re-introduction, prompting me to think about institutional knowledge. Institutional knowledge, sometimes known as tribal knowledge, is our collective memory. It allows us to learn from our past and shape lessons for our future. In my speculative study of toilet paper, I suspect someone attempted to erase this institutional knowledge, from the consumer perspective. There are two types of institutional knowledge:
Explicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge is tangible and concrete information that can be easily stored in documents, manuals, or training material. It includes facts, explanation, and information that can be written down, documented, and shared with other people. Examples include periodic table, historical events, and hospital drug formularies.
Tacit knowledge. Tacit knowledge is derived from personal hands-on experience and is often hard to document and share. Tacit knowledge most often comes with time.
Nudge as a Governmental Tool
On April 8, 2008, the first edition of Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness was published. It’s written by University of Chicago economist and Nobel Laureate Richard H. Thaler, and Harvard Law School professor Cass R. Sunstein. It ushered in the concept of libertarian paternalism, i.e. helping people to choose the correct choice without limiting their choice, freedom, and options. It is a noble endeavor. In fact, the United Kingdom established its Behavioural Insights Team1 while the United States formed the Nudge Unit2, shortly after publication of the book.
But let’s discuss a little further on toilet paper.
Earlier, I mentioned Mega, Mega XL, and Mega XXL varieties at my local Target stores. There are also Family Mega, Super Mega, Club Pack varieties on Amazon.com. And let’s not forget Mega Plus at my local Home Depot stores, too. Please forgive me if I forget to mention your favorite variety.
I am not sure which version Professors Thaler, Sunstein, or other interested parties would like to nudge me into buying. At the present moment, I am concerned that we, as a society, might have a case of firefighter arson. Firefighter arson is a persistent phenomenon involving a very small minority of firefighters who are also active arsonists. Fire-fighting institutions, organizations, and personnels are conscious of this particular problem.3 Some of the offenders seem to be motivated by boredom, or by the prospect of receiving attention for responding to the fires they have set. I sincerely hope economists would inwardly explore, scrutinize, and study this potential problem.
Supposedly, there is a Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times.” I believe we are living in an interesting time.
Thank you for reading. Please subscribe and share my post, if you find this article informative. I have decided to dedicate a portion of my time and energy to writing on this substack, hoping to spread the message of caution, prudence, and watchfulness in this chaotic period. We do the part that we can.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/nudge-unit.
https://behavioralscientist.org/executive-order-formally-establishes-us-nudge-unit/.
https://www.scfc.gov/protection/law-enforcement/firefighter-arson-local-alarm/
:-) cutest way to address inflation.
Personally I suspect REAL inflation based on supermarket prices to be around 25%, as the value of money is shrinking at an accelerated rate. From table "Gold Price Performance: % Annual Change" at https://goldprice.org/: For 2024, average increase in gold price is 34%, implying an average shrinkage of the 8 major currencies of 25%. Such a shrinkage could be indicative of a crashing of the fiat currency system.
Realizing that fiat currency system is the backbone of global hegemony, its crashing could explain the geopolitical tensions and wars the world is witnessing. The millennial Empire will not sail into the sunset without putting up a fight. Actually the current war in Southwest Asia is to maintain control of the oil reserves in the Arabian Peninsula.
Great comment. The current war in West Asia is necessary for toppling the hegemon, especially its European offspring. However, it has exacted a heavy toll on the native population there. I do hope its quick passing. However, I am afraid that it would take longer than we hope. I also agree that inflation is greater than the official report.