A lot of momentous, singular, and consequential events took place over the past couple of months. In this article, I would like to write about the Los Angeles (LA) fires to illustrate a few problems facing the United States within the current geopolitical context.
I begin by discussing the campaign leading to the Battle of Xiaoting/Yiling (c. 221 - c.222) and its effects on the state of Shu Han. I then note some similarities between the fires at Xiaoting/Yiling and the LA fires. I will let readers draw their own conclusion about the fire impacts on modern geopolitical competition.
Three Kingdoms timelapse1
Strategic context
The end of the Han dynasty was marked by numerous military campaigns fought among regional warlords, as illustrated in the above timelapse. In 208, the battle of Red Cliffs was fought on the Yangtze River and delineated the future of imperial China for the next seven decades. The battle was fought between the force of Cao Cao and the combined forces of Sun Quan and Liu Bei. In the aftermath of the battle, China was roughly divided into three areas:
Cao Cao, founder of the Cao Wei state, controlled the north
Sun Quan, founder of the Wu state, ruled the southeast area
Liu Bei, founder of the Shu Han state, dominated the southwest area
However, Cao Wei state remained the strongest, followed by Wu and Shu Han. The unity between Sun Quan and Liu Bei, in the face of overwhelming force from the north, was partially fractured over division of spoils following the retreat of Cao Cao. In particular, both Sun Quan and Liu Bei believed that Jing province (Jingzhou) was within their domain. Liu Bei actually had troops stationed in the province at the end of the battle. Accordingly, Zhuge Liang, advisor of Liu Bei, came up with a ruse, promising to return Jing province to Sun Quan as soon as Liu Bei had found a suitable capital for his state. However, time flew and Sun Quan had to take Jing province by force. In 219, fully a decade after the battle of Red Cliffs, Lu Meng, grand commander of the state of Wu, took Jing province with minimal loss of lives by following the advice of a Confucian scholar, Lu Xun. In the process, Sun Quan executed Guan Yu, Shu Han commander of the Jing province and a sworn brother of Liu Bei.
Battle of Xiaoting/Yiling
Topography of the Battle of Xiaoting/Yiling.2 Note the hilly terrain of the west and the relatively flat area of the east. The Yangtze River divides north and south.
In 221, Emperor Liu Bei, founder of the state of Shu Han, decided to lead his army to re-conquer the Jing province from Wu and avenge the death of his sworn brother, Guan Gu. Zhao Yun, a veteran general under Liu Bei, advised against the invasion. Liu Bei decided to leave him behind to guard against potential invasion from the state of Wei. Qin Mi, another high ranking official, also counseled against the invasion. He was rewarded by being thrown into prison. Prime Minister Zhuge Liang also admonished against the invasion. However, he relented due to Liu Bei’s persistence. However, he advised Liu Bei to withdraw after minor victories and to avoid pursuit of the Wu army.
Emperor Liu Bei personally led about 50000 troops during the invasion of the Jing province, advancing along the southern bank of the Yangtze River. He won a series of initial victories. Disregarding Zhuge Liang’s admonition about pursuing Wu forces, he pressed hard. Huang Quan, one of the commanders under Liu Bei, protested against this strategy and told Liu Bei about the possibility of feign defeats by Wu forces. Huang Quan volunteered to lead the attacking forces and entreated Liu Bei to command the reserves. The emperor did not like the advice and re-assigned Huang Quan to command another contingent tracking along the northern bank of the Yangtze River.
Around this time, Sun Quan decided to appoint Lu Xun as grand commander of the Wu army, leading about 50000 troops. The decision shocked the Wu court since Lu Xun was mostly known as a Confucian scholar. In fact, he had limited experience leading troops. However, Sun Quan wisely pointed out that Lu Xun was actually the one forming the strategy for Lu Meng to surreptitiously invade Jing province in 219.
The initial phase of the battle was marked by numerous defeats, whether intentional or unintentional, and retreats of the Wu forces along the Yangtze River to Xiaoting. Lu Xun ordered numerous retreats along the Yangtze River and refused to engage in major battles with the Shu Han attacking forces. This territory was characterized by narrow corridor along the Yangtze River surrounded by hilly and mountainous terrain. During this phase, there were numerous petitions arriving at the Wu capital, exhorting Sun Quan to dismiss Lu Xun. These petitions noted the large territory given up by Lu Xun. However, Lu Xun was kept as grand commander. Once the Wu army had retreated to Xiaoting, where the narrow valley opening up to the wide, flat, and arable land of the Jing province, Lu Xun prohibited further retreat. However, he continued to refuse to give further battles and decided to stay behind defensive walls until late summer of 222.
Shu Han army grew tired from the year-long march and fell ill from the heat of that summer. Liu Bei ordered his army to build around forty camps in wooded areas along hilly sloped terrain to alleviate the summer heat.
A section of the Yangtze river in Yiling3
Lu Xun then ordered an attack along the contact line, using fire against the Shu Han army. The fire attack at Xiaoting spread along the hilly terrain, decimating the Shu Han army. Emperor Liu Bei was forced to withdraw to Baidi and died there, probably with a broken heart. Wu army had minimal losses while the Shu Han army was decimated mainly by the fires.
As a wise Confucian scholar, Lu Xun probably knew that fire generally moves faster uphill than downhill because the heat from the flames readily preheats the fuel ahead of it on the slope, causing it to ignite more quickly; essentially, the slope acts like a natural draft pushing the flames upwards.
Key points about fire movement on slopes:4
Heat convection: As hot air rises, the heat from a fire moving uphill naturally preheats the vegetation further up the slope, making it easier to ignite.
Steeper slope, faster fire: The steeper the slope, the faster the fire will travel uphill.
Wind patterns: Wind often blows uphill, further accelerating the fire's movement upwards.
Aftermath of the Battle of Xiaoting/Yiling
The state of Shu Han lost its best military units and was essentially locked in the southwest area. Prime Minister Zhuge Liang, recognized as the most accomplished strategist of this era, and successive Shu Han leaders failed to break out of the area. The kingdom gradually declined and was conquered in 263.
Modern Implication
Los Angeles fires
The LA fires, in particular that of Pacific Palisades, occurred in similar topography to the fires at the battle of Xiaoting/Yiling. The Santa Monica Mountain range runs through the northern and eastern sections of Pacific Palisades, accessible through a series of trailheads. The area is accessible to the outside world mainly through Sunset Boulevard. The boulevard has curvaceous winding stretches, and can be treacherous for unalert drivers in some sections. Sunset Boulevard is at least four lanes wide along its entire route. It is frequently congested with traffic loads beyond its design capacity.5
Pacific Palisades topography6. Note the hilly terrain of the eastern and northern area, the Pacific Ocean on the west
During the early hour of the fires, panic drivers abandoned vehicles on Sunset Boulevard and blocked passage for emergency vehicles and rescuers. Authorities had to bring in bulldozer to moves cars and allow passage of firetrucks and supporting staffs. In the process, it probably lengthened the life of the fire.
Bulldozer moves car blocking Sunset Boulevard. Note the high number of electric vehicles
Wealth does not negate the law of gravity. It is harder for water to go uphill, leading to empty fire hydrants, especially in the context of “inverse condemnation,” which allows fire victims to sue without proving negligence.7 Therefore, California power companies have rules to reduce the risk of wildfires, including Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS) and reporting requirements, which complicate the situation and probably contribute to dry fire hydrants.8
A dry fire hydrant in Los Angeles9
Astute readers would note the fire hydrant is painted in the colors of the flag of Ukraine. I won’t make any comment on this fact, except I would like to note that I also saw this pattern of colors on fire hydrants in multiple areas, including Mobile, Alabama in my traveling since the Russo-Ukraine War. Normally, fire hydrants are painted red. But wealth allows people to do amazing things, I suppose.
In addition, California's Solar Mandate requires solar panels to be installed on new single-family homes and low-rise multi-family homes. The mandate went into effect on January 1, 2020.10 Furthermore, California plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035, leading to increase adoption of electric vehicles. This ban will allow only zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to be sold in the state.11 Informed readers would know that lithium battery burns stronger and longer.12 These facts probably also provided longevity to the fires.
Complex systems generally require more energy to maintain and operate than simpler systems.13 And complexity leads to emergent properties, some of which were revealed during the fires. For example, fires from electric vehicle (EV) batteries and solar panels can release toxic gases and particles, including:
Hydrogen fluoride (HF): A toxic gas that can be released in large amounts from lithium-ion battery fires
Phosphoryl fluoride (POF3): A potentially toxic gas that can be released from lithium-ion battery fires
Metallic particles: Including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper
Soot: A byproduct of lithium-ion battery fires
Carcinogenic compounds: Compounds that can be emitted from EV and solar panel fires
These toxins will inevitably slow down the rebuilding process. It is worthwhile to note that only 3 houses (out of around 2000) have been rebuilt in 18 months after the Maui fire of 2023.14
Like the effect of the fires at the battle of Xiaoting/Yiling on the Shu Han state, the LA fires undoubtedly would have momentous, consequential, and long-term impacts on the US ability to respond to complex changes in today world. In similar vein, it would play out in terms of decades. Time will tell.
We live in interesting times. I think we are going to re-trace parts of the road taken by previous generations, as I alluded in a previous article. Take care of yourself and your loved ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Kingdoms
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Xiaoting
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202104/1221074.shtml
Google search AI
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_Boulevard
https://www.topozone.com/california/los-angeles-ca/city/pacific-palisades/
Inverse condemnation is kind of particular for California
https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PSPS/
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-fires-why-fire-hydrants-los-angeles-had-no-water-2025-1
https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/building-energy-efficiency-standards/energy-code-support-center/solar
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/
https://scdailygazette.com/2024/05/16/lithium-fires-burn-hotter-and-longer-heres-how-sc-is-preparing-for-a-growing-battery-industry/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919310067?via%3Dihub
https://reason.com/2025/01/22/18-months-after-wildfires-destroyed-some-2000-homes-on-maui-only-3-have-been-rebuilt/
Simply beautiful... very informative... but the style is exceptional!
Amazing insights. brilliant!